Comment by jstanley

For your specific case: maybe 1 in 10000. Or 1 in 5000 because "11230" would fit just as well.

So about 13 bits of improbability.

But your hypothesis took a lot more than 13 bits to encode! It would be better compressed to say "Just think: 12350. What are the chances?"

That an elaborate explanation can be found to fit a number is not that surprising when you consider how many possible elaborate explanations there are.

See also https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/11/05/the-pyramid-and-the-ga...