Comment by surgical_fire
18 days ago
> I can't imagine how the people who have to deal with this are feeling. It's like you have a junior developer except they don't even read what you're telling them, and have 0 agency to understand what they're actually doing.
That comparison is awful. I work with quite a few Junior developers and they can be competent. Certainly don't make the silly mistakes that LLMs do, don't need nearly as much handholding, and tend to learn pretty quickly so I don't have to keep repeating myself.
LLMs are decent code assistants when used with care, and can do a lot of heavy lifting, they certainly speed me up when I have a clear picture of what I want to do, and they are good to bounce off ideas when I am planning for something. That said, I really don't see how it could meaningfully replace an intern however, much less an actual developer.
These GH interactions remind me of one of those offshore software outsourcing firms on Upwork or Freelancer.com that bid $3/hr on every project that gets posted. There's a PM who takes your task and gives it to a "developer" who potentially has never actually written a line of code, but maybe they've built a WordPress site by pointing and clicking in Elementor or something. After dozens of hours billed you will, in fact, get code where the new file wasn't added to the csproj or something like that, and when you point it out, they will bill another 20 hours, and send you a new copy of the project, where the test always fails. It's exactly like this.
Nice to see that Microsoft has automated that, failure will be cheaper now.
This gives me flashbacks to when my big corporate former employer outsourced a bunch of work offshore.
An outsourced contractor was tasked with a very simple job as their first task - update a single dependency, which required just a bump of the version and no code changes - after three days of them seemingly struggling to even understand what they were asked to do, inability to clone the repo, failure to install the necessary tooling on their machine, they ended up getting fired from the project. Complete waste of money, and the time of those of us having to delegate and review this work.
Makes me wonder if the pattern will continue to follow, and we start to find certain agents—maybe due to config, maybe due to the training codebase and the codebase they're pointed at—that will become the single one out of the group we can rely on.
Give instructions, get good code back. That's the dream, though I think the pieces that need to fall into place for particular cases will prevent reaching that top quality bar in the general case.
1 reply →
> These GH interactions remind me of one of those offshore software outsourcing firms on Upwork or Freelancer.com that bid $3/hr on every project that gets posted
Those have long been the folks I’ve seen at the biggest risk of being replaced by AI. Tasks that didn’t rely on human interaction or much training, just brute force which can be done from anywhere.
And for them, that $3/hr was really good money.
Actually the AI might still be more expensive at this point. But give it a few years I'm sure they will get the costs down.
>>These GH interactions remind me of one of those offshore software outsourcing firms on Upwork or Freelancer.com that bid $3/hr on every project that gets posted.
This level of smugness is why outsourcing still continues to exist. The kind of things you talk about were rare. And were mostly exaggerated to create anti-outsourcing narrative. None of that led to outsourcing actually going away simply because people are actually getting good work done.
Bad quality things are cheap != All cheap things are bad.
Same will work with AI too, while people continue to crap on AI, things will only improve, people will be more productive with AI, get more and bigger things done for cheaper and better. This is just inevitable given how things are going now.
>>There's a PM who takes your task and gives it to a "developer" who potentially has never actually written a line of code, but maybe they've built a WordPress site by pointing and clicking in Elementor or something.
In the peak of outsourcing wave. Both the call center people and IT services people had internal training and graduation standards that were quite brutal and mad attrition rates.
Exams often went along the lines of having to write whole ass projects without internet help in hours. Theory exams that had like -2 marks on getting things wrong. Dozens of exams, projects, coding exams, on-floor internships, project interviews.
>>After dozens of hours billed you will, in fact, get code where the new file wasn't added to the csproj or something like that, and when you point it out, they will bill another 20 hours, and send you a new copy of the project, where the test always fails. It's exactly like this.
Most IT services billing had pivoted away from hourly billing, to fixed time and material in the 2000s itself.
>>It's exactly like this.
Very much like outsourcing. AI is here to stay man. Deal with it. Its not going anywhere. For like $20 a month, companies will have same capability as a full time junior dev.
This is NOT going away. Its here to stay. And will only get better with time.
> This level of smugness is why outsourcing still continues to exist. The kind of things you talk about were rare. And were mostly exaggerated to create anti-outsourcing narrative. None of that led to outsourcing actually going away simply because people are actually getting good work done
I used upwork (when it was elance) quite a lot in a startup I was running at the time, so I have direct experience of this and its _not_ a lie or "mostly exaggerated", it was a very real effect.
The trick was always to weed out these types by posting a very limited job for a cheap amount and accepting around five or more bids from broad prices in order to review the developers. Whoever is actually competent then gets the work you actually wanted done in the first place. I found plenty of competant devs at competitive prices this way but some of the submissions I got from the others were laughable. But you just accept the work, pay them their small fee, and never speak to them again.
There's no reason why an outsourcing firm would charge less for work of equal quality. If a company outsourced to save money, they'd get one of the shops that didn't get the job done.
9 replies →
I think that was the point of the comparison..
It's not like a regular junior developer, it's much worse.
And yet it got the job and lots of would be juniors didn’t, and it seems to be costing the company more in compute and senior dev handholding. Nice work silicon valley.
> That said, I really don't see how it could meaningfully replace an intern however
And even if it could, how do you get senior devs without junior devs? ^^
What is making it difficult for Junior devs to be hired is not AI. That is a diversion.
The raise in interest rates a couple of years ago triggered many layoffs in the industry. When that happens salaries are squeezed. Experienced people work for less, and juniors have trouble finding job because they are now competing against people with plenty of experience.
Simple, there are always people who are intentionally using the hard way. There is a community programming old 16-bit machines for example, which are much harder than modern tools. Or someone learning assembly language "just for fun".
Some of those (or similar) people will actually learn new stuff and become senior devs. Yes, there will be much fewer of them, so they'll command a higher salary, and they will deliver amazing stuff. The rest, who spend their entire carrier being AI handlers, will never raise above junior/mid level.
(Well, either that or people who cannot program by themselves will get promoted anyway, the software will get more bugs and less features, and things will be generally worse for both consumers and programmers... but I prefer not to think about this option)
Sounds like a next quarter problem (I wish it was /s).
> It's like you have a senior phd level intelligence developer except they don't even read what you're telling them, and have 0 agency to understand what they're actually doing.
Is that better?
Did you miss the "except" in his sentence? He was making the point this is worse than junior devs for all reasons listed.
I was agreeing with him, by saying that the comparison is awful.
Not sure how it can be read otherwise.
You were agreeing with him by saying his comparison was awful?
That doesn't make any sense.