Comment by bakugo

> I look back over the past 2-3 years and am pretty amazed with how quick change and progress have been made.

Now look at the past year specifically, and only at the models themselves, and you'll quickly realize that there's been very little real progress recently. Claude 3.5 Sonnet was released 11 months ago and the current SOTA models are only marginally better in terms of pure performance in real world tasks.

The tooling around them has clearly improved a lot, and neat tricks such as reasoning have been introduced to help models tackle more complex problems, but the underlying transformer architecture is already being pushed to its limits and it shows.

Unless some new revolutionary architecture shows up out of nowhere and sets a new standard, I firmly believe that we'll be stuck at the current junior level for a while, regardless of how much Altman & co. insist that AGI is just two more weeks away.