Comment by spiderice
7 days ago
But there very well might be a time very soon where human's no longer offer economic value to the software engineering process. If you could (and currently you can't) pay an AI $10k/year to do what a human could do in a year, why would you pay the human 6 figures? Or even $20k?
Nobody is claiming that human's won't have jobs simply because "we have accomplished everything this is to do". It's that humans will offer zero economic value compared to AI because AI gets so good and so cheap.
And there might be a giant asteroid that strikes the earth a few years down the line ending human civilization.
If there is some magic $10k AI that can fully replace a $200k software engineer then I'd love to see it. Until that happens this entire discussion is science fiction.
You don’t need to completely replace a whole 200k engineer. You just need to increase each engineer’s productivity sufficiently that you can reduce the total number of engineers in your company.
> If there is some magic $10k AI that can fully replace a $200k software engineer then I'd love to see it.
I think you have multiple offers of that very AI dangling in front of you, but you might be refusing to acknowledge them. One of the problems is the way you opt to frame the issue. Does "replacing" means firing the guy hoping to replace him with a Slack webhook? Or does it mean your team decides they don't need the same headcount of medior/senior engineers because a team of junior engineers mentored by someone focusing on quality ends up being more productive?
If experts were saying the astroid will hit earth in the next 5 years, would it still be science fiction?
You acting like those two scenarios are the same is disingenuous. Fuck that.
Experts understand orbital mechanics pretty well. If experts say an asteroid in the next 5 years it's pretty similar to saying that a rock dropped from the top of a skyscraper will hit the ground. It happens billions of times every day, we know the cause and effect.
With AI, there's no real expertise involved in saying "well, it was very stupid 5 years ago, now it's starting to seem smart, if we extrapolate it's going to be smarter than me in 5 years." But no one really knows what level of effort is required to make it smarter than me. No one is an expert in something that doesn't exist yet.
Remove all the "experts" who have a major conflict of interest (running AI startups, selling AI courses, wanting to pump their company's stock price by associating with AI) and you'll find that very few actual experts in the field hold this view.
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It's not. Consider that replacing the only $200k software engineer on the project is different than replacing the third or tenth $200k software engineer on the project. To the extent AI is improving productivity of those engineers, it reduces the need for adding more engineers to that team. That may mean firing some of them, or just not hiring new ones (or fewer of them) as the project expands, as existing ones + AI can keep up with increased workload.
I'm biased but my money's on the end result of AI being fewer engineers per team but also teams as a concept becoming obsolete.
Why keep legacy structures, with luxuries like POs or PMs if AI becomes powerful as you say - it'll just be 'one man startups' for better or worse.
Any empire-building VP should probably fear the wishful AI future they're praying for!
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You run into knowledge collapse because nobody is socially reproducing that knowledge.
This seems an important thing that somebody should be concerned about. How do we get the next generation of engineers? And how will they even be able to do the senior engineer work of validating the LLM output if they haven't had the years of experience writing code themselves?
well they just need an information archive to learn that knowledge online, no human needed
in software atleast but if you involve in hardware. good things AI cant just replace you outright
In this scenario who would be buying this product that offers 'zero economic value compared to AI because AI gets so good and so cheap'.
it doesn't even have to be that. software engineer used to be a medium pay job, theres no law of the universe that says it cant go back to that.