Comment by tptacek
5 days ago
This isn't responsive to what I wrote. Letting the tools stabilize is one thing, makes perfect sense. "Waiting until the hype cycle dies" is another.
5 days ago
This isn't responsive to what I wrote. Letting the tools stabilize is one thing, makes perfect sense. "Waiting until the hype cycle dies" is another.
I suspect the hype cycle and the stabilization curves are relatively in-sync. While the tools are constantly changing, there's always a fresh source of hype, and a fresh variant of "oh you're just not using the right/newest/best model/agent/etc." from those on the hype train.
This is the thing. I do not agree with that, at all. We can just disagree, and that's fine, but let's be clear about what we're disagreeing about, because the whole goddam point of this piece is that nobody in this "debate" is saying the same thing. I think the hype is going to scale out practically indefinitely, because this stuff actually works spookily well. The hype will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Well, generally, that’s just not how hype works.
A thing being great doesn’t mean it’s going to generate outsized levels of hype forever. Nobody gets hyped about “The Internet” anymore, because novel use cases aren’t being discovered at a rapid clip, and it has well and throughly integrated into the general milieu of society. Same with GPS, vaccines, docker containers, Rust, etc., but I mentioned the Internet first since it’s probably on a similar level of societal shift as is AI in the maximalist version of AI hype.
Once a thing becomes widespread and standardized, it becomes just another part of the world we live in, regardless of how incredible it is. It’s only exciting to be a hype man when you’ve got the weight of broad non-adoption to rail against.
Which brings me to the point I was originally trying to make, with a more well-defined set of terms: who cares if someone waits until the tooling is more widely adopted, easy to use, and somewhat standardized prior to jumping on the bandwagon? Not everyone needs to undergo the pain of being an early adopter, and if the tools become as good as everyone says they will, they will succeed on their merits, and not due to strident hype pieces.
I think some of the frustration the AI camp is dealing with right now is because y’all are the new Rust Evangelism Strike Force, just instead of “you’re a bad software engineer if you use a memory unsafe languages,” it’s “you’re a bad software engineer if you don’t use AI.”
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