Comment by didibus

Agreed, people often mix that up, but you have to adopt a probabilistic mindset, you can believe the coin with land on its head, but you also know that based on the weight and curvature of the coin it will land on its tail 68% of the time you flip it, etc. Then choosing tail is no longer a belief, it is simply going with the choice that is backed by prior observation, experiments, models, etc.

You might still lose, and so you might choose to also believe it will land on tail this time, but the rationale for choosing tail was not based on a belief system, but the going information and where it points too.