Comment by black3r

> does it mean that the average ride length is 1.8km? that seems kinda low..., like that's something I would walk if I didn't hurry..

Idk about the average but I used to make a bad joke that walking is considered an extreme sport in most of the US. Sometimes, it’s for legit reasons such as extreme heat, literally no sidewalks, and areas that are perceived as dangerous because of the people there. Other times it’s just seen as a discomfort ”why walk when you can sit in a large car”. This is reflected in language, where ”walkable” is a frequent term used to describe the often rare parts of urban areas where you can comfortably walk from A to B. In EU there’s often no need for such a term.

> how long it's gonna take to be competitive in countries where driver salaries are lower than US?

Why not share my prediction, it’s probably as bad as the rest of them: I think this stage right now is about viability. Getting training data and real road experience, knowing what sensors are needed, range of road conditions, and grasping the enormous amount of novel traffic situations. I don’t think the purpose of the pricing is to make profits, but rather to test the markets end-to-end. Essentially, it’s an R&D project designed to inform and instill confidence for future investing and scaling.

As for replacing human drivers, I think it’ll be region-by-region with a very long tail. Since cost of labor varies so much, you’d need many years to bring costs of vehicles and maintenance down to be competitive. Plus, expanding to new regions have huge fixed costs and risk, much more so with AVs than normal ”Uber-style” services, with BYO labor & vehicle. These things need service centers, depots, offices, probably quite densely, no? Not to mention the politics, unions etc.

One of the most recent Uber rides I took was in Orlando. As the crow flies it was almost exactly 500 meters from point to point, but Google has it as a 50 minute, 4km walk. Most of the US is really not set up for walking.

In most of the US it's not really possible/safe to walk between buildings just because of how everything got built. Often it would involve crossing six lane divided highways etc. That's why you see so many threads here talking about bikes/transit/urban design etc.

I do plenty of walking.

I'll take an Uber if I have luggage. If it's raining heavily. If I'm in a hurry because the play is about to start and there's no late seating. If I'm on a date and she's wearing high heels. Etc.

Just because people are sometimes taking Ubers for short distances doesn't mean they're usually taking Ubers for short distances.

Uber isn't a way of life. It's a tool for when you need it.

Say you want to pick up some groceries. In most US cities there is no nearby small market; in some cities there are, but it varies widely. So either you can get takeout, or you can go from 1 (median) to 2.6 (average) miles to a grocery store. You could bike, but most US cities don't have good bike infrastructure (and let's face it, we're lazy). If there is public transit it's slow and unreliable.

Rideshare prices can also be 2x more expensive depending on the city. One city's average price is $7, another's is $17. Some cities are more compact, some are more spread out, some have fewer drivers, some have more, some have a lower cost of living, some higher, some have more suburban drivers, some fewer.

I and a friend visited California, ending in San Diego. We figured out we didn't need the rental car for the last few days, so we asked the hotel clerk how to get back from the car dropoff at the airport. "You could Uber ..." but had no suggestion for an alternative.

We then looked at the map - https://www.brouter.de/brouter-web/#map=15/32.7236/-117.1779... . It was 2km, all on sidewalks. My friend dropped off the car and walked back.

It was lovely SoCal weather, with the sun close to setting over the bay. But the idea of walking it seemed far from at least the clerk's mind.

I believe many of my fellow Americans feel the same. I'm one of the oddballs that would walk 1 1/2 miles home after clubbing rather than drive - something likely only possible for guys as the streets at 1am were empty of anyone walking.

Which also means I've had my share of walks where the sidewalk ended, or where I wasn't legally allowed to go further. That's the American way. /s