Comment by deepdarkforest
1 day ago
> Sundar is a really uninspiring leader
I understand, but he made google a cash machine. Last quarter BEFORE he was CEO in 2015, google made a quarterly profit of around 3B. Q1 2025 was 35B. a 10x profit growth at this scale well, its unprecedented, the numbers are inspiring themselves, that's his job. He made mistakes sure, but he stuck to google's big gun, ads, and it paid off. The transition to AI started late but gemini is super competitive overall. Deepmind has been doing great as well.
Sundar is not a hypeman like Sam or Cook, but he delivers. He is very underrated imo.
Like Ballmer, he was set up for success by his predecessor(s), and didn't derail strong growth in existing businesses but made huge fumbles elsewhere. The question is, who is Google's Satya Nadella? Demis?
Since we're on the topic of Microsoft, I'm sure you'd agree that Satya has done a phenomenal job. If you look objectively, what is Satya's accomplishments? One word - Azure. Azure is #2, behind AWS because Satya's effective and strategic decisions. But that's it. The "vibes" for Microsoft has changed, but MS hasnt innovated at all.
Satya looked like a genius last year with OpenAI partnership, but it is becoming increasingly clear that MS has no strategy. Nobody is using Github Copilot (pioneer) or MS Copilot (a joke). They dont have any foundational models, nor a consumer product. Bing is still.. bing, and has barely gained any market share.
People now days don't understand how genius MS was in the 90s.
Their strategy and execution was insanely good, and I doubt we'll ever see anything so comprehensive ever again.
1. Clear mission statement: A PC in very house.
2. A nationwide training + certification program for software engineers and system admins across all of Microsoft's tooling
3. Programming lessons in schools and community centers across the country to ensure kids got started using MS tooling first
4. Their developer operations divisions was an insane powerhouse, they had an army of in house technical writers creating some of the best documentation that has ever existed. Microsoft contracted out to real software engineering companies to create fully fledged demo apps to show off new technologies, these weren't hello world sample apps, they were real applications that had months of effort and testing put into them.
5. Because the internet wasn't a distribution platform yet, Microsoft mailed out huge binders of physical CDs with sample code, documentation, and dev editions of all their software.
6. Microsoft hired the top technical writers to write books on the top MS software stacks and SDKs.
7. Their internal test labs had thousands upon thousands of manual testers whose job was to run through manual tests of all the most popular software, dating back a decade+, ensuring it kept working with each new build of Windows.
8. Microsoft pressed PC OEMs to lower prices again and again. MS also put their weight behind standards like AC'97 to further drop costs.
9. Microsoft innovated relentlessly, from online gaming to smart TVs to tablets. Microsoft was an early entrant in a ton of fields. The first Windows tablet PC was in 1991! Microsoft tried to make smart TVs a thing before there was any content, or even wide spread internet adoption (oops). They created some of the first e-readers, the first multimedia PDAs, the first smart infotainment systems, and so on and so forth.
And they did all this with a far leaner team than what they have now!
(IIRC the Windows CE kernel team was less than a dozen people!)
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> Azure is #2, behind AWS because Satya's effective and strategic decisions
I am going to have to disagree with this. Azure is number 2, because MS is number 1 in business software. Cloud is a very natural expansion for that market. They just had to build something that isn't horrible and the customers would have come crawling to MS.
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Microsoft has become a lot more friendly to open source under Satya. VSCode, GitHub, and WSL happened during his tenure, and probably wouldn't have happened under Ballmer. Turning the ship from a focus on protecting platform lock-in to meeting developers where they are is a huge accomplishment IMO.
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Diversifying Microsoft away from the traditional cash cow of Windows and Office is the single most important strategy for Microsoft and he executed it well.
His genius is really just making good bets on people, and letting them do their thing.
People like Scott Guthrie who was a key person behind dot.net, and went on to be the driving force behind Azure. Anyone who did any dot.net work 10+ years ago would know the ScottGu blog and his red shirt.
Google similarly bet on Demis, and the results also show. For someone who got his start doing level design on Syndicate (still one of my all-time favourite games) he's come a long way.
> If you look objectively, what is Satya's accomplishments?
Managing to keep the MS Office grift going and even expand it with MS Teams is something
This is kind of bullshit. One can equally say Satya was setup for success by Ballmer as he stepped away graciously taking all the blame so new CEO can start unencumbered.
> who is Google's Satya Nadella? Demis?
100% it's Demis.
A Demis vs. Satya setup would be one for the ages.
Demis has the best story arc. The path from bullfrog and lionhead games to the tip of the spear in biological research. You can't make this up
He's also happens to be a really nice guy in person.
He might have delivered a lot of revenue growth yea, but Google culture is basically gone. Internally we're not very far from Amazon style "performance management"
To upper management types that’s a feature not a bug.
He delivered revenue growth by enshittifying Goog's products. Gemini is catching up because Demis is a boss and TPUs are a real competitive advantage.
You either attribute both good and bad things to the CEO, or dont. If enshittifying is CEO's fault, then so is Gemini's success.
Why? We've all seen organizations in which some things happen because of the CEO, and others happen in spite of them.
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Not really, pressure to move into AI is so vast that it in reality the CEO had little saying about moving into it or not, and they already had smart employees to make it a reality, vastly different that what happened with enshitification which Gemini is part of, just recently people were complaining that the turn off button was hijacked to start Gemini in their Android phones.
Demis reports to Sundar. All of Demis's decisions would have been vetted by and either approved, rejected, or refined by Sundar. There's no way to actually distinguish how much of the value was from whom, unless you have inside info.
The Nobel Committee seemed fairly sure who was responsible for what around those parts.
> Last quarter BEFORE he was CEO in 2015, google made a quarterly profit of around 3B. Q1 2025 was 35B.
Google's revenue in 2014 was $75B and in 2024 it was $348B, that's 4.64 times growth in 10 years or 3.1 times if corrected for the inflation.
And during this time, Google failed to launch any significant new revenue source.
Tim Cook is the opposite of a hypeman.
I like that you are writing as a defense of Google and Sundar.
Their brand is almost cooked though. At least the legacy search part. Maybe they'll morph into AI center of the future, but "Google" has been washed away.
World is much.. much bigger than HN bubble. Last year, we were all so convinced that Microsoft had it all figured out, and now look at them. Billion is a very, very large number, and sometimes you fail to appreciate how big that is.
Oh I'm conveying opinions other than mines, tech people I work with, that are very very removed from the HN mindset actually, were shitting on google search for a long time this week.
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Maybe they'll morph into AI center of the future
Haven't you been watching the headlines here on HN? The volume of major high-quality Google AI releases has been almost shocking.
And, they've got the best data.
who didn't ? I meant in the future, if this becomes a long term fruitful economic value (sorry but video and image generation have no value, it's laughable and used for cheap needs, and most of the time people are very annoyed by it).
> The transition to AI started late but gemini is super competitive overall.
If by competitive you mean "We spent $75 Billion dollars and now have a middle of the pack model somewhere between Anthropic and Chinese startup", that's a generous way to put it.
Citation needed. Gemini 2.5 pro is one of the best models there is right now, and it doesn't look like they're slowing down. There is a LLM response to basically every single Google search query, it's built into the billions of android phones etc. They're winning.
By competitive, i mean no.1 in LM arena overall, in webdev, in image gen, in grounding etc. Plus, leading the chatbot arena ELO. Flash is the most used model in openrouter this month as well. Gemma models are leading on device stats as well. So yes, competitive
Except coding, where it’s essentially middle of the pack. Which is the only thing that you can build objective benchmarks around. The fact that people on LM arena prefer the output has no relationship to how intelligent the model actually is.
Gemini 2.5 Pro is excellent. Top model in public benchmarks and soundly beat the alternatives (including all Claudes and that Chinese startup’s flagship) in my company’s internal benchmarks.
I’m no Google lover — in fact I’m usually a detractor due to the overall enshittification of their products — but denying that Gemini tops the pile right now is pure ignorance.