Comment by kamaal

This is a different way of saying, people must learn how to use a new technology. I think like cars, radio, internet or smart phones. It took a while for people to understand somethings are so disruptive, eventually it will find a way into your life in all forms.

Im guessing for someone in laundry or restaurant business it might be hard to understand how AI could change their lives. And that is true, at least at this stage in the adoption and development of AI. But eventually it will find a way into their business in some form or the other.

There are stages to this. Pretty sure the first jobs to go will be the most easiest. This is the case with Software development too. When people say writing code has gotten easier, they really are talking about projects that were already easy to build getting even more easier. Harder parts of software development are still hard. Making changes to larger code bases with a huge user base comes with problems where writing code is kind of irrelevant. There are bigger issue to address like regression, testing, stability, quality, user adoption etc etc.

Second stage is of course once the easy stuff gets too easy to build. There is little incentive to build it. With modern building techniques we aren't building infinite huts, are we? We pivoted to building sky scrapers. I do believe most of AI's automation gains will be soaked up in the first wave and there will little incentive to build easy stuff and harder stuff will have more productivity demands from people than ever before.