Comment by cosmic_cheese

This probably depends on the user. Someone leaning less technical might not catch on or care, but someone who’s even just technical enough to be able to get themselves in trouble probably will. The more technical one becomes, the more tuned into the details of their OS and the more likely it is for those details to become incorporated into their workflow. When those details change it’s then hard to miss.

So there’s some number of users who could probably just be switched over by PC vendors preinstalling Linux, but there’s other groups who’d benefit from something more truly Windows-like.

Aside from those groups, I think there’s a crowd that could be attracted by simply selling your distro as being like “Windows when it was still good, except this time you get to keep it forever”. I think there’s a decent number of people who’ve become fatigued with modern Windows but don’t care enough to switch who’d be pushed over the edge by a distro that’s a near perfect reproduction of XP, 7, etc. Nostalgia can be a powerful motivator.

Heh, I know people who are using a Windows PC for decades yet legitimately don't know what "Windows" is. They have a PC. They work in Word. They browse in Chrome. They have no knowledge whatsoever as to what Windows is.

How long ago was this? There hasn't been a "more recent version of Office" for quite some time, so I suspect that this happened a while ago. Things have changed a lot, let me count the ways...

The rise of smartphones has eliminated an entire class of computer users. People who just want to do some Google searches, chat on Facebook, etc. can just use phones, and they do. (Caveat: I think a lot of people in the 30-50 age group still prefer a PC, because that's what they're used to, but that cohort is a one-off and is slowly diminishing. Furthermore, I've observed that as people near retirement, they are less interested in sitting in front of a computer screen, which will diminish this cohort relatively soon).

So who still uses a computer? I think it's just PC gamers, highschool/college students, and white-collar professionals.

PC gamers are very satisfied with the state of Linux, because games are relatively simple applications, and the Linux ecosystem has been able to provide a great compatibility environment for Windows games.

Students and professionals are less likely to be satisfied with Linux, and it's not really Linux's fault, but a lot of software just doesn't work on Linux. And even if it did, small issues like case-sensitive filesystems could easily provide enough friction to prevent these users from switching. Lastly, these users are willing to spend a modest amount of money to save them time, and a Windows PC with the cost of the OS bundled isn't exactly expensive. Windows 10 was released over 10 years ago, and these users are likely to buy a new PC within that time, meaning they'll always get the latest Windows version, so upgrading their OS isn't really something they think about.

Keep in mind, I'm not saying any of this is good or correct or moral or non-cringe, I'm just saying that this is the real reason why Linux adoption is a more complex issue these days.