Comment by bravesoul2
3 days ago
Yes. I'm saying the first HN post was a great signal, but a probability. It could have flopped from there. But sales from a cold HN post to me is good pot odds, so stay in the game!
The rear view mirror thing is of course true: you can only know the market by testing it by trying to sell your thing to it. Anything forward looking is a prediction.
You are always making decisions that are like bets.
Definitely agree on thinking in bets and probabilities.
Is your sense that we're officially at PMF now? Or maybe last year even?
Or do you think the question is fundamentally subjective and depends on who you ask and what numbers seem compelling to them, like you kind of alluded to before?
"We"? Are you the owner? If so you know much more than me!
Yep, I wrote the post!
I'd say we reached PMF a couple years ago the way I define it (solid customer acquisition from organic sources & word-of-mouth, strong retention, sustainable growth).
I was just curious if others might look at it differently, since I know definitions can vary. And like you said, some people might look at this update and dismiss it as still really small-time.