Comment by papaver-somnamb
2 days ago
Tony Seba around 10 years ago predicted (among many other things) that ~2024 the cost of generating a unit of electricity onsite with PV will cost less than merely delivering the same unit of electricity over transmission infrastructure, not even considering the cost of generating that unit.
Nowadays he is diving into what he terms the phase change disruptions where he explores and thinks out the ramifications of these disruptions.
I agree, personal energy abundance is disruptive: * Utility decentralization, economic liberation from near zero marginal cost of energy after initial investment. * Geo political: reduced dependence on hydrocarbon fuels, energy sovereignty * Transportation: every home is becomes a 'gas station' to recharge EVs, or for the EVs to charge the house in case of low house batteries (as opposed to ICE generator) * Climate: no hydrocarbons burned => no pollution * Technological civilization: abundant clean energy creates a feedback loop of innovation in energy production, storage, AI and networking * new business models from energy as a service
I've been following Seba since around 2020, and it's wild how: 1) he continues to be correct 2) people are still very slow to believe him
his predictions have gotten a LOT more dramatic lately, I can't wait to see if he's still nailing it
where do you follow him? i just poked around in X & youtube but all his stuff there seems ~a year old.
Tony himself doesn’t post frequently, but his new book “Stellar” is worth checking out. Some of the other RethinkX people, Adam Dorr @adam_dorr and Bradd Libby @bradd_libby are better at posting high-frequency updates using Seba’s models. former-RethinkX researcher Nafeez Ahmed has a blog that is also worth checking out: ageoftransformation.org