Comment by Terr_
3 days ago
> people consistently predict and self-report in the wrong direction
I recall an adage about work-estimation: As chunks get too big, people unconsciously substitute "how possible does the final outcome feel" with "how long will the work take to do."
People asked "how long did it take" could be substituting something else, such as "how alone did I feel while working on it."
That’s an interesting adage. Any ideas of its source?
It might have been in Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow"
I'm not sure, but something involving Kahneman et al. seems very plausible: The relevant term is probably "Attribute Substitution."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attribute_substitution