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Comment by ben_w

2 days ago

If any of the Hinkley Points, Berkeley, Oldbury had an exclusion zone like Chernobyl's, Bristol and half the Bristol Channel would have been in the exclusion zone. (Berkeley, Oldbury would also have forced evacuation of GCHQ).

Dungeness, would have included Dover.

Bradwell, the Thames. The Sizewells, it would have been Lowestoft and Harwich.

Torness, the Firth of Forth, blocking sea access to Edinburgh.

While this is not an exclusive list, and also I grant I'm not actually modelling what the fallout zone might look like when there's a coastline involved (is it better or worse? IDK), I ask you: which major international transit hub can the island of Great Britain do without? I'm sure they can be rapidly evacuated (being transit hubs), but how fast can the capacity be replaced elsewhere, how fast, and at what cost?

Consider that the UK barely had enough stuff in place just for the Brexit-related customs checks, which it saw coming, even though there was a global pandemic at the time that reduced/zero passenger on the same hubs. How much worse if any of these hubs becomes completely off-limits?

That plus the chronic[0] extra demand on the rest of the power grid. Ukraine had to keep the other reactors at the Chernobyl power plant itself running after the incident, just to avoid shortages.

A 2016 estimate said the overall cost of the Chernobyl disaster was US$700 billion, which is approximately [EDIT: not 97%, mixing dollars and pounds, see [3]] 72% of the tax revenue the UK collected in the tax year starting about when that report was published[1][2][3].

Regarding your point about collection of radioactive waste from nuclear plants, that's only the case for correct operations, not when they leak — or, in the case of Chernobyl, explode.

[0] the acute (sudden) part is fine as shutdowns happen at random anyway; chronic is the long-term.

[1] https://globalhealth.usc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2016...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_United_Kingdom

[3] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=700USD+in+GBP+in+2016

6 comments

ben_w

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smcl  2 days ago

> A 2016 estimate said the overall cost of the Chernobyl disaster was US$700 billion ...

You're taking 30 years worth of expenses and comparing them to the UK tax intake for one year. I am pretty certain the USSR didn't pay for all that up-front.

So $700b over 30 years is about $23b/year. The UK gov budget for the year you selected was about $1045b[1]. So if we are to take your Chernobyl example, it's about 2% of GDP per year. That is roughly half of what was spent on the second-smallest sector of the budget - "Public order and safety". That is a lot of money! But you're implying it would cause the collapse of the UK altogether.

As a comparison, during the 07/08 financial crisis the UK government bailed out the banks to the tune of $185b and managed to not collapse...

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2016-docum...

  • ben_w  2 days ago

    > You're taking 30 years worth of expenses and comparing them to the UK tax intake for one year. I am pretty certain the USSR didn't pay for all that up-front.

    Didn't pay all of it ever, that's also the damages of other affected nations after the collapse of the USSR.

    So, there was a de-facto if not de-jure default on that cost.

    > As a comparison, during the 07/08 financial crisis the UK government bailed out the banks to the tune of $185b and managed to not collapse...

    It also owned some of the banks as a result (I was personally affected by this, LLOY shares), it wasn't just a pure cost.