Comment by danielbln

4 months but now 10-20x more productive means there should be an explosions of projects! So where is it?

Sure but that would be 40 months with claimed LLM augmentation though. I don't feel it.

We surely shouldn't need a whole minute, 3 seconds should suffice? ;)

Jokes aside, if 20x was on the table for any kind of meaningful work we wouldn't need to wait for much of anything, entire parts of industry would be invented and technically reworked by now. It's most likely ~1.25x for what is mostly trivial work that approaches 95% boilerplate and zero actual design work.

If you read calrain's posts the 20x number is taken from the "fact" that sometimes (not consistently or most of the time) something that was estimated at 2 weeks or 80 hours (who knows what it was and how that number came to be?) took 2 hours instead. That's not just some minor detail; it's just not a sound way of thinking about productivity increases.