Comment by jltsiren
2 days ago
That's not what Occam's razor means. It means that after you have exhausted all options to rule out competing hypotheses, you choose the simplest one that remains, for the time being.
Consider some explanations that are consistent with the evidence presented so far. And remember that the purpose of the investigation is to come up with actionable conclusions.
1. One of the pilots randomly flipped and crashed the plane for no reason. In this case, nothing can be done. It could have happened to anyone at any time, and we were extraordinarily unlucky that the person in question was in position to inflict massive casualties.
2. Something was not right with one of the pilots, the airline failed to notice it, and the pilot decided to commit a murder-suicide. If this was the case, signs of the situation were probably present, and changes in operating procedures may help to avoid similar future accidents.
3. One of the pilots accidentally switched the engines off. The controls are designed to prevent that, but it's possible that improper training taught the pilot to override the safeties instinctively. In this case, changes to training and/or cockpit design could prevent similar accidents in the future.
Because further investigation may shed light on hypotheses 2 and 3, it's premature to make conclusions.
Given the fly by wire nature of 787 there is an also fourth option.
The physical switch was not touched at all , and the software has a bug under some rare conditions which cut off the supply to both engines.
Extremely unlikely, since we can hear the other pilot ask why he turned the fuel switches. If it was an electrical glitch, he wouldn’t be able to see that they are in the cutoff position.
All we know is the pilot flying is only asking whether the pilot monitoring if he cut off
- We don't know if he meant the switch specifically at all. He could also have meant engines or thrust in general. There are many other visual signals and UX indicators to know if engines are spinning down. Thrust levels, to RPM to falling speed, change in angle of attack, rate of climb, even engine noise, vibrations you expect at full thrust etc.
- We also don't know if the switch was physically in cut off position in the first place or even if was the pilot noticed that specific visual signal and meant that when he spoke.
If it was a software issue, it is possible the switch was properly positioned, and software issue cut engine was cutoff, the display screens and other lights would show that.
In such a scenario, the pilot(s) would have likely checked with each other first if they did something as in the audio and manually tried restarting the engine as they seem to have done.
I am not saying it is a bug or any specific fault scenario, Just that it too early, we don't yet have enough information to say what is likely at all.
3 replies →