Comment by Amezarak

These polls are just asking “who are you going to vote for”, there’s no subtlety to them - and the Selzer poll was still off by 16 points. Nate Silver after all his polling meta analysis bet 100k that Trump would win Florida narrowly at best. He won it by 15 points.

They aren’t deducing voting behavior from your positions. They are just asking you who you were going to vote for and they can’t get it right.

Given those facts, I can’t see any reason to believe even the results of a fraught question like “do you consider yourself a moderate?”