Comment by guelo
6 months ago
Sorry I don't buy your argument.
(First I disagree with A Secular Age's thesis that secularism is a new force. Christian and Muslim churches were jailing and killing nonbelievers from the beginning. People weren't dumber than we are today, all the absurdity and self-serving hypocrisy that turns a lot of people off to authoritarian religion were as evident to them as they are to us.)
The idea is not that AI is on a pre-planned path, it's just that technological progress will continue, and from our vantage point today predicting improving AI is a no brainer. Technology has been accelerating since the invention of fire. Invention is a positive feedback loop where previous inventions enable new inventions at an accelerating pace. Even when large civilizations of the past collapsed and libraries of knowledge were lost and we entered dark ages human ingenuity did not rest and eventually the feedback loop started up again. It's just not stoppable. I highly recommend Scott Alexander's essay Meditations On Moloch on why tech will always move forward, even when the results are disastrous to humans.
That isn’t the argument of the book, so I don’t think you actually read it, or even the Wikipedia page?
The rest of your comment doesn’t really seem related to my argument at all. I didn’t say technological process stops or slows down, I pointed out how the thought patterns are often the same across time, and the inability and unwillingness to recognize this is psychologically lazy, to over simplify. And there are indeed examples of technological acceleration or dispersal which was deliberately curtailed – especially with weapons.
> I pointed out how the thought patterns are often the same across time, and the inability and unwillingness to recognize this is psychologically lazy, to over simplify.
It's not lazy to follow thought patterns that yield correct predictions. And that's the bedrock on which "AI hype" grows and persists - because these tools are actually useful, right now, today, across wide variety of work and life tasks, and we are barely even trying.
> And there are indeed examples of technological acceleration or dispersal which was deliberately curtailed – especially with weapons.
Name three.
(I do expect you to be able to name three, but that should also highlight how unusual that is, and how questionable the effectiveness of that is in practice when you dig into details.)
Also I challenge you to find but one restriction that actually denies countries useful capabilities that they cannot reproduce through other means.
Doesn’t seem that rare to me – chemical, biological, nuclear weapons are all either not acceptable to use or not even acceptable to possess. Global governments go to extreme lengths to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. If there were no working restrictions on the development of the tech and the acquisition of needed materials, every country and large military organization would probably have a nuclear weapons program.
Other examples are: human cloning, GMOs or food modification (depends on the country; some definitely have restricted this on their food supply), certain medical procedures like lobotomies.
I don’t quite understand your last sentence there, but if I understand you correctly, it would seem to me like Ukraine or Libya are pretty obvious examples of countries that faced nuclear restrictions and could not reproduce their benefits through other means.
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> And there are indeed examples of technological acceleration or dispersal which was deliberately curtailed – especially with weapons
Which examples? Despite curtailment, new countries have acquired nuclear weapons over time.
Efforts to squash technology exist, such as cloning bans, and so on, but they will only work for so long. You might think I'm making a "predestination" argument here, but I'm not. I'm observing the powerful incentives at play (first past the post advantage), noting that historically technology has always advanced, and making a bet that technology will continue to advance. I am supremely confident in that bet. I could of course go out and protest, but there is also a part that doesn't seem present in the original post and your argument, many (maybe most) of us don't want to stop technological progress.
I add to this that we have plenty of examples of societies that don't keep up with technological advancement, or "history" more broadly get left behind. Competition in a globalized world makes some things inevitable. I'm not agreeing in full with the most AI will change everything arguments, but those last couple of paragraphs of TFA sounds to me like standing athwart history, yelling "Stop!".
Communism used to be thought of in this way. It enabled societies to cast off old limitations and make remarkable progress. Until it didn't and Communists found themselves and their modernized society stuck well behind the rest of the world. Perhaps LLMs are a similar trap that will generate many lines of code and imagined images but leave us all stupid and with impaired executive function.