Comment by Davidzheng

I mean. Back when I was practicing these problems sometimes I would try them on/off for a week and would be able to do some 3&6's (usually I can do 1&4 somewhat consistently and usually none of others). As a working mathematician today, I would almost certain not be able to get gold medal performance in a week but for a given problem I guess I would have ~50% chance at least of solving it in a week? But I haven't tried in a while. But I suspect the professionals here do worse at these competition questions than you think. I mean certain these problems are "easy" compared to many of the questions we think about, but expertise drastically shifts the speed/difficulty of questions we can solve within our domains, if that makes sense.

Addendum: Actually I am not sure the probability of solving it in a week is not much better than 6 hours for these questions because they are kind of random questions. But I agree with some parts of your post tbf.