Comment by navane
6 days ago
That's why you have to let these people make predictions about many things. Than you can weigh the 8, 16, and 90 pct and see who is talking out of their ass.
6 days ago
That's why you have to let these people make predictions about many things. Than you can weigh the 8, 16, and 90 pct and see who is talking out of their ass.
That's just the frequentist approach. But we're talking about bayesian statistics here.
I admit I dont know Bayesian, but isn't the only way to check if the future teller is lucky or not to have them predict many things? If he predicts 10 to happen with a 10% chance, and one of them happens, he's good. If he predicts 10 to happen with a 90% chance and 9 happen, same. How is this different with Bayesian?
It is the only way if you're a frequentist. But there is a whole other subfield of statistics that deals with assigning probabilities to single events.