Comment by AlphaAndOmega0
4 days ago
The person who guessed 16% would have a lower Brier score (lower is better) and someone who estimated 100%, beyond being correct, would have the lowest possible value.
4 days ago
The person who guessed 16% would have a lower Brier score (lower is better) and someone who estimated 100%, beyond being correct, would have the lowest possible value.
I'm not saying there aren't ways to measure this (bayesian statistics does exist after all), I'm saying the difference is not worth arguing about who was right. Or even who had a better guess.