Comment by cellis
6 days ago
This is probably the best thing I’ve ever read about predictions of the future. If we could run 80 parallel universes then sure it would make sense. But we only have the one [1]. If you’re right and we get fast takeoff it won’t matter because we’re all dead. In any case the number is meaningless, there is only ONE future.
You can make predictions of many different things though. Building a quantifiable track record. If one person is consistently confidently wrong then that says something about their ability and methodology