Comment by lucianbr
6 days ago
Is there some database where you can see predictions of different people and the results? Or are we supposed to rely on them keeping track and keeping themselves honest? Because that is not something humans do generally, and I have no reason to trust any of these 'rationalists'.
This sounds like a circular argument. You started explaining why them giving percentage predictions should make them more trustworthy, but when looking into the details, I seem to come back to 'just trust them'.
Yes, there is: https://manifold.markets/
People's bets are publicly viewable. The website is very popular with these "rationality-ists" you refer to.
I wasn't in fact arguing that giving a prediction should make people more trustworthy, please explain how you got that from my comment? I said that the main benefit to making such predictions is as practice for the predictor themselves. If there's a benefit for readers, it is just that they could come along and say "eh, I think the chance is higher than that". Then they also get practice and can compare how they did when the outcome is known.