Comment by jancsika

> If someone else consistently gives higher probabilities to events that ended up happening than you did, then that's an indication that there's space for you to improve your prediction ability.

Your inference seems ripe for scams.

For example-- if I find out that a critical mass of participants aren't measuring how many participants are expected to outrank them by random chance, I can organize a simplistic service to charge losers for access to the ostensible "mentors."

I think this happened with the stock market-- you predict how many mutual fund managers would beat the market by random chance for a given period. Then you find that same (small) number of mutual fund managers who beat the market and switched to a more lucrative career of giving speeches about how to beat the market. :)