Comment by AnimalMuppet
4 days ago
From false premises, you can logically and rationally reach really wrong conclusions. If you have too much pride in your rationality, you may not be willing to say "I seem to have reached a really insane conclusion, maybe my premises are wrong". That is, the more you pride yourself on your rationalism, the more prone you may be to accepting a bogus conclusion if it is bogus because the premises are wrong.
Then again, most people tend to form really bogus beliefs without bothering to establish any premises. They may not even be internally consistent or align meaningfully with reality. I imagine having premises and thinking it through has a better track record of reaching conclusions consistent with reality.
> I imagine having premises and thinking it through has a better track record of reaching conclusions consistent with reality.
You only need to make one mistake in the entire chain of reasoning to get a wrong result.
Mathematically speaking, if your total probability of making even one mistake somewhere in the chain is 50% or greater, the result is still a coinflip.
Success is a combination of reducing your error rate, keeping your chains of reasoning short, and verifying the intermediate results empirically.
> I imagine having premises and thinking it through has a better track record of reaching conclusions consistent with reality.
Why do you imagine that? Have you tested it?