Comment by rpcope1
4 days ago
Where Bayes' theorem applies in unconventional ways is not remotely novel for "rationalism" (maybe only in their strange busted hand wavy circle jerk "thought experiments"). This has been the domain of statistical mechanics long before Yudkowski and other cult leaders could even probably mouth "update your priors".
I don't know, most of science still runs on frequentist statistics. Juries convict all the time on evidence that would never withstand a Bayesian analysis. The prosecutor's fallacy is real.
Most science runs on BS with a cursory amount of statistics slapped on top so everyone can feel better about it. Weirdly enough, science still works despite not being rational. Rationalists seem to think science is logical when in reality it works for largely the same reasons the free-market does; throw shit at the wall and maybe support some of the stuff that works.