Comment by sebmellen
3 hours ago
I get shunned by the tribe for saying this, but at this point you just have to make peace with very bad winters. We will all freeze, and sometimes there is nothing you can do to prevent the ice spirits. To save the tribe, more people have to be willing to hunt the great beasts than currently are.
The pure spirits of the situation are staggering. The cold breath of the ice demons is endless. The expanse of frozen wasteland is endless. We are completely cursed.
Everything the elders have told you about warmer lands or pretending we can continue following the old herds is a lie. Fire-keeping rituals, cave paintings for good luck, offering bones to sky spirits - it is all worthless. We had to migrate south 30 seasons ago, and the tribe leaders simply chose not to.
The idea we can preserve our way of life through better spear-making is laughably false. At this point, every large tribe on the tundra would have to simultaneously share their hunting grounds, we’d have to create a coordinated great alliance around mammoth hunting, and another great alliance around fire-keeping (while not angering the flame spirits into abandoning us). The tribe currently has the most foolish shaman it has ever had, surrounded by warriors that do not care about the starving and act on base dominance over the best hunting spots. The clans are at war. The young hunters are greedily and actively making this worse by overhunting the remaining herds and hoarding flint. The odds of our people’s successful survival of this great freezing - at a tribal level - catastrophe is almost zero.
Do you truly think that drastically changing the composition of the atmosphere in less than 150 years won't have dramatic effects on heating/cooling?
The CO2 PPM in the atmosphere has ~doubled since the industrial revolution.
You can mock this, but the data doesn't care what either of us think.
Current Mediterranean water temps are +6C above normal, as observed over peak human civilization in the 20th century. That is 6kWh per cubic meter, in just the Mediterranean. The article briefly mentions this extending 30m down.
To give the order of magnitude of the energy involved, the Mediterranean surface area is 2,500,000,000,000 sq m. At 6kWh cu m and 18m deep, that is the energy equivalent of about 390,000 megatons. Or about 8,000 Tsar Bombas. The Mediterranean is small, about 0.7% of ocean surface area.
I still have no clue at all how much a Tsar Bomba is in the context of the climate.
1 Tsar Bomba (50 MT = 2e17J) is about 1/28,000,000 of the total solar power delivered to Earth annually, so about 1.4 seconds of top-of-atmosphere solar power (~1.5 million PWh / year).
On the other hand, it roughly equals 1/2000 to 1/3000 of annual global energy consumption (~175 PWh / year) so about 4 hours of human energy.
The energy of those 8000 Tsar Bombas in the Mediterranean then is the same as all of human energy, electrical and fossil and otherwise, going to heating up that sea for a little over 2 years straight, or focussing all sunlight over the disc of the Earth on it for 3 hours.
(All these figures depend on who you ask as all the figures are a little bit fuzzy).
It also shows that any key to climate change revolves around adjusting the modulation of insolation and/or retention - the actual energy used by humans is, for the forseeable future, completely irrelevant except on local scales like warm water outflows into rivers and seas.
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270Trillion kWh is about 1.5 × the total energy from the sun that hits the earth in one hour. I'm not sure if that helps, and the trillion-kilo is kinda gross.
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