Comment by bilsbie
2 days ago
I’ve never seen so much evidence for a bubble yet so much potential to be the biggest Thing ever.
Just getting a lot of mixed signals right now. Not sure what to think.
2 days ago
I’ve never seen so much evidence for a bubble yet so much potential to be the biggest Thing ever.
Just getting a lot of mixed signals right now. Not sure what to think.
Personally, I think it's both! It's a bubble, but it's also going to be something that slowly but steadily transforms the world in the next 10-20 years.
People seem very confused thinking that something can't both be valuable AND a bubble.
Just look at the internet. The dot com bubble was one of the most widely recognised bubbles in history. But would you say the internet was a fad that went away? That there was no value there?
There's zero contradiction at all in it being both.
We might see another AI winter first, is my assumption. I believe that LLMs are fundamentally the wrong approach to AGI, and that bubble is going to burst until we have a better methodology for AGI.
Unfortunately, the major players seem focused on 'getting to AGI pretention through LLM'.
Dot-com was the same way... the Internet did end up having the potential everyone thought it would, businesses just didn't handle the influx of investment well.
Yeah, it truly IS transformative for industries, no denying anymore at this point. What we have will remain even after a pop. But I think AI was special in how there were massive improvements the more compute you threw at it for years. But then we ran out of training material and suddenly things got much harder. It’s this ramping up of investments to spearhead transformative tech and suddenly someone turns off the tap that makes this so conflicted. I think.
There is potential but it does seem like just throwing more money at LLMs is not going to get us to where the bubble expects
It's, like, a vision thing. You know?
https://www.threads.com/@professor_neil/post/DNiVLYptCHL/im-...
I think the internet is bigger than AI.
Without the internet there is no AI.
... people said the same thing about the "metaverse" just a few years ago. "You know people are gonna live their entire lives in there! It's gonna change everything!" And 99% of people who heard that laughed and said "what are you smoking?" And I say the same thing when I hear people talk about "the AI machine god!"