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Comment by marknutter

2 days ago

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This might be true for a normal definition of success, but not lottery-winner style success like Facebook. If you look at Microsoft, Netflix, Apple, Amazon, Google, and so on, the founders all have few or zero previous attempts at starting a business. My theory is that this leads them to pursue risky behavior that more experienced leaders wouldn't try, and because they were in the right place at the right time, that earned them the largest rewards.

  • Not true of Netflix, founder came from PayPal. Apple required founder to leave and learn with a bunch of other companies like Pixar and next.

What "massive string of failed attempts" did Zuckerberg or Bezos ever accumulate?

This is just cope for people with a massive string of failed attempts and no successes.

Daddy's giving you another $50,000 because he loves you, not because he expects your seventh business (blockchain for yoga studio class bookings) is going to go any better than the last six.

IMO this strengthens the case for luck. If the probability of winning the lottery is P, then trying N times gives you a probability of 1-(1-P)^N.

Who's more likely to win, someone with one lottery ticket or someone with a hundred?

"Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires."

Some will read this and laser in on the "socialism" part, but obviously the interesting bit is the second half of the quote.