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Comment by throw0101a

4 days ago

> Index funds won't necessarily save you.

So first off, picking individual winning stocks is hard because new information that determines pricing comes in randomly, so good luck getting information edge on your counter-party:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Random_Walk_Down_Wall_Street

Further, <5% of stocks actually make up the vast majority of earnings:

* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3710251

* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2900447

* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4541122

Those winning stocks also change over time: what used to be a winning choice can become a losing choice, so it's not like you can really set and forget things.

So index funds, buying all companies (especially if you go for more total market, like US Russell 3000), allow you to sidestep all of these risks. You are basically buying companies that service the entire economy, so as long as the economy is doing reasonably well the earnings of the companies will do reasonably well.

So yes, the S&P 500 is highly concentrated, but that is not the only index. Diversification is generally not a bad idea:

* https://ofdollarsanddata.com/do-you-need-to-own-internationa...

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FXuMs6YRCY