Comment by aksss
2 days ago
Are you bearish on the shovel seller? Is now the time to sell out? I'm still +40% on nvda - quite late to the game but people still seem to be buying the shovels.
2 days ago
Are you bearish on the shovel seller? Is now the time to sell out? I'm still +40% on nvda - quite late to the game but people still seem to be buying the shovels.
Personal opinion, I'm bearish on the shovel seller long term because the companies that are training AI are likely to build their own hardware. Google already does this. Seems like a matter of time for the rest of the mag 7 to join. The rest of the buyers aren't growing enough to offset that loss imo.
FWIW, Nvidia's moat isn't hardware and they know this (they even talk about it). Hardware wise AMD is neck and neck with them, but AMD still doesn't have a CUDA equivalent. CUDA is the moat. As painful as it is to use, there's a long way to go for companies like AMD to compete here. Their software is still pretty far behind, despite their rapid and impressive advancements. It will also take time to get developer experience to saturate within the market, and that will likely mean AMD needs some good edge over Nvidia, like adding things Nvidia can't do or being much more cost competitive. And that's not something like adding more VRAM or just taking smaller profit margins because Nvidia can respond to those fairly easily.
That said, I still suggested the parent sell. Real money is better than potential money. Classic gambler's fallacy, right? FOMO is letting hindsight get in the way of foresight.
What's the old Rockefeller clique? When your shoe shiner is giving you stock advice it is time to sell (may have heard the taxicab driver version).
It depends on how risk adverse you are and how much money you have there.
If you're happy with those returns, sell. FOMO is dumb. You can't time the market, the information just isn't available. If those shares are worth a meaningful amount of money, sell. Take your wins and walk away. A bird in your hand is worth more than two in the bush, right? That money isn't worth anything until it is realized[0].
Think about it this way: how much more would you need to make to risk making nothing? Or losing money? This is probably the most important question when investing.
If you're a little risk adverse or a good chunk of your profile is in it, sell 50-80% of it and then diversify. You're taking wins and restructuring.
If you wanna YOLO, then YOLO.
My advice? Don't let hindsight get in the way of foresight.
[0] I had some Nvidia stocks at 450 and sold at 900 (before the split, so would be $90 today). I definitely would have made more money if I kept them. Almost double if I sold today! But I don't look back for a second. I sold those shares and was able to pay off my student debt. Having this debt paid off is still a better decision in my mind because I can't predict the future. I could have sold 2 weeks later and made less! Or even in April of this year and made the same amount of money.
I have absolutely no clue whatsoever. I have zero insider information. For all I know, the bubble could pop tomorrow or we might be at the beginning of a shift of a similar magnitude to the industrial revolution. If I could reliably tell, I wouldn’t tell you anyway. I would be getting rich.
I’m just amused by people who think they are financially more clever by taking conservative positions. At that point, just buy ETF. That’s even more diversification that buying Microsoft.