Comment by griffzhowl
2 days ago
> The biggest problem I see with "establishment" science today is that it doesn't work this way [i.e., make accurate predictions].
This is a gross over-generalization imo. I would say at least the hard sciences are characterized by their extremely accurate predictive models. Are you thinking of maybe string theory specifically? Because that's a minority part of even the field of physics, and exceptional in many ways, so it's not right to generalise from it to the whole of physics, let alone all current science
> I would say at least the hard sciences are characterized by their extremely accurate predictive models.
Parts of them are. General relativity and quantum mechanics have been extensively tested within the domains we are able to test, and so yes, we have mountains of evidence as to the predictive models built using those general theories in those domains. And in cases where those domains extend into people's everyday lives (I gave the example of GPS upthread), the predictive accuracy of the models is now a matter of common knowledge.
But that's only part of "science", even "hard science". See further comments below.
> Are you thinking of maybe string theory specifically?
String theory is one example of the problem, but certainly not the only one.
> it's not right to generalise from it to the whole of physics, let alone all current science
I think you have it backwards. The wrong generalization is to think that, because certain parts of our best current "hard sciences" have predictive models whose accuracy has been confirmed by mountains of evidence, that that's the norm. It's not. The predictive models we have based on GR and QM in certain domains are the exception, not the rule; they're the lucky cases where we've been able to run many, many controlled experiments, or where the domains are simple enough that we've been able to get Nature to give us lots of useful evidence (for example, we can now measure GR corrections to the basic Newtonian model of the solar system to fairly high order).
But most of what is called "science", even "hard science", is not like that. Not only do we not have predictive models of anything like the same accuracy, in many cases we don't even have predictive models at all. More important, the science doesn't get judged on whether it has predictive models. It gets judged on how plausible the pronouncements of "experts" sound.