Comment by 0xDEAFBEAD
14 hours ago
>its desirable for a model to be based on causal rather than merely correlated variables
Ironically, your "likes_hiphop" example would appear to be an unusually clean case of a variable that is likely to exert causal influence.
What do you think the causal effect of listening to lyrics like "Prolly leave my fuckin' show in a cop car" might be, on an impressionable teenage boy say?
From one of the most-streamed hip-hop songs of all time:
https://genius.com/Post-malone-rockstar-lyrics
https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-05-20/best-hip-hop-songs-1...
>A model based on "socioeconomic status" has a totally different social meaning than one based on race, even if we cannot fully disentangle the two statistically.
I see no evidence Gwern disagrees with this claim. He just seems to be arguing the "cannot fully disentangle the two statistically" part.
Doesn't it seem like the opposite to you? Since this is one of the most streamed songs of all time AND most kids have not "[left their] fuckin' show in a cop car" it seems that the causal power of media is small, which is pretty consistent with the literature on the subject.
The vast, vast majority of people understand the difference between media and real life. I mean I wouldn't go so far as to suggest that Post Malone is "good," either "morally" or aesthetically, but I don't think there is a strong case for lyrics, tv, or video games having a strong effect on violent behavior. But if it were the case it would be good to identify it accurately. There is plenty of violent "rock" music too, after all. The Columbine shooters weren't listening to hip hop.
>most kids have not "[left their] fuckin' show in a cop car"
Many people commit crimes. I'll bet criminals are more likely to listen to hip hop than the population at large is.
>it seems that the causal power of media is small
If the causal power of media is small, why are you concerned with Gwern's article? Even if he made claims that are blatantly racist, it wouldn't matter much, since the causal power of media is small.
>The vast, vast majority of people understand the difference between media and real life.
Suppose 99% understand that, and 1% don't. That can still be a big relative increase in the rate of crimes which do serious harm.
If you read the message of the song lyrics I linked, the clear implication (very common with this sort of music) is that criminal behavior will make lots of women want to have sex with you. This can easily be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Women listen to the lyrics and think to themselves "criminals sound cool and rebellious; criminal behavior is kinda hot -- all the other women are going for criminals; perhaps I will as well". Men who are trying to become attractive to women listen to the lyrics, and engage in crime alongside the other things they are doing which make them more attractive. Thus the prophecy becomes self-fulfilling, to society's detriment.
Anyways, as an exercise, ask ChatGPT to generate a list of top gangster rap artists. Then pick a few at random and ask if they've run into trouble with the law. There's a much higher rate of lawbreakers in this group than the population at large.