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Comment by belter

2 months ago

In the meawhile, Oracle stock went up 40% in one one day, based on what Wall Street thinks AI might be...in 4 years...Not a bubble at all...

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belter

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candiddevmike  2 months ago

I think Oracle's stock mostly popped due to a delayed reaction with the US GSA contract it secured in July and the revenue guidance probably related to it:

https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/blog/oracle-cloud-c...

  • belter  2 months ago

    Lol...That contract has Oracle offering licenses at a discount of 75% and is estimated to make them not more than one 1 Billion. The other big contract on Cloud services the DoD JWCC is $8B to 9B but shared by four vendors (AWS, Microsoft, Google, Oracle) and Oracle orders under it are in the hundreds of millions not even 1 Billion...

    Wall Street is currently heavily punishing any company who misses their quarter, including NVIDIA!, after beating on their quarter.

    Oracle had a earnings miss in the current quarter!

    Their current REALITY is ~$15B quarterly revenue (with cloud infra ~$3B) and only ~$12B in near-term deferred backlog and deferred backlog is NOT revenue. To justify the valuation, this would imply OCI going from ~$18B in FY26 to ~$140B by FY30 that is an insane promise of +$120B in 4 years but back-loaded into the year 3 or year 4. :-))

    Capex needs ~$35B next year just to chase GPUs/power and if they miss one quarter the story implodes. The supposed rational, efficient market, is paying near $1T today for back-loaded hopes.

    Is completely bubble math. Like anybody, including Oracle AND their Customers, have ANY idea of their Capex in 4 years.

    Complete and total bubble.