Comment by epistasis
2 days ago
Aha, that meaning wasn't clear to me in your original sentence.
The best research I have seen on why different technologies get their learning rates is from the interviewees of this podcast:
https://www.volts.wtf/p/which-technologies-get-cheaper-over
Some people think that SMRs are a way for nuclear to get on a learning curve, but there's just as many skeptical people as enthusiastic people about that, in my experience.
Natural energy resources are a huge source of geopolitical turmoil since the start of the industrial age. Renewables have the potential to significantly lessen these conflicts compared to what's happened with fossil fuels.
Thanks for the podcast.
>>Renewables have the potential to significantly lessen these conflicts compared to what's happened with fossil fuels.
I'm not too optimistic about it. As usual, on one side you have countries with big renewable sources, the producers and on the other side, you have countries with strong industry, which requires a lot energy, the consumers.
Nearly all countries will be able to power themselves quite well with renewables, and if not that they can pay the high price for nuclear power.. But in any case, renewable energy provides much more independence than feasible with fossil fuel based industry. Fossil fuels require a continuous stream of transfer to operate. When you buy 5GW of solar panels from a country, you have 30+ years of energy before you need to think about repowering the facility, and even if there's a shortage after 30 years they are still working at merely reduced production power.
Those countries without the option for local renewables are no worse off for independence than before. The option of renewables only adds independence, it doesn't take it away. Thus our renewable future will be far more stable.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine gives a ton of insight about these dynamics, IMHO. Ukraine's energy system was vulnerable because large thermal generators pose easy targets that can be taken out with minimal tonnage of bombs. Taking out a solar field or wind field is not as easy. And Ukraine's nuclear facilities have been actively used against them during the war by Russia. In particular, Russia has used executions/torture/coercion of nuclear reactor staff and explosions around nuclear reactors to threaten melt downs, etc. Plus, it's barely been covered anywhere, but Russia in this year used drones to damage the new brand new sarcophagus that was supposed to last 100 years, with very few paths to repair:
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/chernobyl-protec...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW4BEqDS_wM
And the war has also illustrated the dependence of so many countries on Russia's fossil fuels, enough to kick off inflation across the entire world. Fossil fuels are a global market, so it doesn't matter where the disruption happens, it affects prices the world over. Even though the US is supposedly energy independent when it comes to oil and natural gas, we still suffer the consequences because of that global market.
A power system bulid on local production via renewables does not suffer these massive disruptions from the actions of single nation states. The inflaction Reduction Act was very aptly named, though few people today understand why, it seems. Future generations will curse us for delaying our true energy independence, which is only possible when we get off fossil fuels.