The difference now is that this is all (or mostly) idle cash being invested. The massive warchests built up by FAANG over the last decade are finally being deployed meaningfully rather than sitting in bonds or buying back stock. Much different scenario than companies with non-viable business models going IPO on a wish and a dream.
It's a question of how far the contagion goes - the Dotcom bubble trashed the NASDAQ and rumbled the world a bit, but the "big stocks" weren't directly involved or affected much; the subprime mortgage bubble shook the very foundations of the banking world.
Will the contagion be limited to a few companies, or will the S&P crumble under the bubble's collapse?
The part that’s hard to understand is how the sunk costs of hundreds of billions in capex gets repaid by all those people in cafes paying hundreds of dollars per month to use those LLMs.
People have no idea how much concern there was around whether FB would ever be able to monetize social media. That company went public at $15, and nearly closed below that on IPO day.
AI is more useful than social media. This is not financial advice, but I lean more toward not a bubble.
Not hard to use. I meant hard to understand what the limitations are for non tech users. E.g people who think AGI is just around the corner because we now have stochastic parrots.
dotcom bubble had tons of activity, too.
it was making money off those idea at the valuations expected that was problem.
the Internet really did revolutionize things, in substantial ways, but not to the tune of millions of dollars for pets.com
>dotcom bubble had tons of activity, too.
The difference now is that this is all (or mostly) idle cash being invested. The massive warchests built up by FAANG over the last decade are finally being deployed meaningfully rather than sitting in bonds or buying back stock. Much different scenario than companies with non-viable business models going IPO on a wish and a dream.
It's a question of how far the contagion goes - the Dotcom bubble trashed the NASDAQ and rumbled the world a bit, but the "big stocks" weren't directly involved or affected much; the subprime mortgage bubble shook the very foundations of the banking world.
Will the contagion be limited to a few companies, or will the S&P crumble under the bubble's collapse?
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The part that’s hard to understand is how the sunk costs of hundreds of billions in capex gets repaid by all those people in cafes paying hundreds of dollars per month to use those LLMs.
Where do you see that?
In some Hollywood reality, probably.
(Like those people that casually assume that everyone has a therapist or a lawyer.)
Chat rooms webs were sold by millions in the dotcom era.
And everybody used them.
Nowdays everybody see them as useless.
They evolved into Instagram(8 billion), WhatsApp(20 billion) and FB(trillion)
No.
Chats did not evolve to social media.
Facebook is a descendant of hotornot not icq or chats.
Ws was seen as free sms.
Pretty sure discord and slack are not useless…
Discord and slack are evolutions of msn messenger and icq.
Not web chat rooms.
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People have no idea how much concern there was around whether FB would ever be able to monetize social media. That company went public at $15, and nearly closed below that on IPO day.
AI is more useful than social media. This is not financial advice, but I lean more toward not a bubble.
> AI is more useful than social media.
Communication is a fundamental human need.
Generating slop isn't.
Not hard to use. I meant hard to understand what the limitations are for non tech users. E.g people who think AGI is just around the corner because we now have stochastic parrots.