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Comment by blibble

6 days ago

> If you won't accept my anecdotal stories about this, consider the fact that both Gemini and OpenAI got gold medal level performance in two extremely well regarded academic competitions this year: the International Math Olympiad (IMO) and the International Collegiate Programming Contest (ICPC).

it's not a fair comparison

the competitions for humans are a display of ingenuity and intelligence because of the limited resources available to them

meanwhile for the "AI", all it does is demonstrate is that if you have a dozen billion dollar data-centres and a couple of hundred gigawatt hours, which can dedicate to brute-forcing a solution, then you can maybe match the level of one 18 year old, when you have a problem with a specific well known solution

(to be fair, a smart 18 year old)

and short of moores law lasting another 30 years, you won't be getting this from the dogshit LLMs on shatgpt.com

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blibble

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simonw  6 days ago

Google already released the Gemini 2.5 Deep Think model they used in ICPC as part of their $250/month "Ultra" plan.

The trend with all of these models is for the price for the same capabilities to drop rapidly - GPT-3 three years ago was over 1,000x the price of much better models today.

I'm not yet ready to bet against that trend holding for a while longer.

  • blibble  6 days ago

    > GPT-3 three years ago was over 1,000x the price of much better models today.

    right, so only another 27 years of moores law continuing left

    > I'm not yet ready to bet against that trend holding for a while longer.

    I wouldn't expect an industry evangelist to say otherwise