Comment by selcuka

No, I don't think they will always be junior developers. Obviously there will be a day that they will surpass humans.

However, the progress doesn't look linear with the current technology, and I don't expect to see the same big jump in the next 5 years as we've seen in the last 5 unless we discover a disruptive, new technology.

This can also be observed by comparing models with ~3B, ~30B, and ~300B parameters. You can see a huge performance boost when going from 3B to 30B, but we don't see the same when going to 300B. Simply adding 10x more RAM and GPU power brings diminishing returns.