Comment by Karrot_Kream
6 days ago
I don't think there is one. Prediction Markets are probably the closest and even those have problems. But at least incentives in a prediction market aim for the truth rather than an entertaining experience.
6 days ago
I don't think there is one. Prediction Markets are probably the closest and even those have problems. But at least incentives in a prediction market aim for the truth rather than an entertaining experience.
No, incentives aim for whatever gives a return - not an objective neutral verdict-of-the-crowd. It requires a regulator to be active.
Read about the whale trades and wash trades on Polymarket: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41999743
Yes the incentive alignment is what I was referring to when I mentioned that prediction markets have their own issues.
I'm not convinced wash trading is a huge problem as it's mostly about generating fake volume. The particular linked example is bad too because Trump did end up winning the election.
I said Polymarket doesn't give an objective neutral verdict-of-the-crowd at some moments, since their markets are still fairly small and can be moved short-term by whale trades.
An example is how volatile their markets are on Fed rate decisions; sometimes you see serious short-term disagreement or contrarianism between individual markets:
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025
https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october
https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december