Comment by nabla9

"I am convinced that the next step in escalation will be a small-scale provocation against a Baltic country before the end of the year. He will do it. He just needs to show that Article 5 does not work. His goal is to prove that NATO is dead, and the best way is to display its impotence. He will try it with a limited incursion. I'm not talking about a massive invasion or attacking Poland. He knows that would end very badly for him. But a limited incursion in Estonia or Latvia is another matter."