Comment by maxglute
7 hours ago
Wonder if US/USN is even institutionally capable of moving away from carrier expeditionary model if on paper it's borderly demonsntratbly not survivable. Feel like too much of US national prestige is tied to muh 11+10 carrier+lhd literally legislated into law (10 US Code 8062a). Too much big dick energy ego tied to arguably obsolecent platform, well at least for peer war.
The article did not say carriers were demonstrably not survivable in warfare. Or it said that that was not the conclusion of the navy.
The lesson wasn’t that aircraft carriers are obsolete; it was that air-independent propulsion and patient SSK tactics demand layered, disciplined, team-based ASW. ... The U.S. answer isn’t to panic about aircraft carriers; it’s to layer defenses and distribute risk—push the air wing’s reach (tankers, long-range weapons), fill gaps with manned and unmanned ASW platforms, and keep expanding the fleet’s acoustic picture with fixed and mobile arrays. The Gotland episode didn’t say “carriers are obsolete.” It said “carriers must be escorted by a navy that trains, equips, and fights as if quiet SSKs are everywhere.”
More of a generalized comment, not limited to article. IMO even less point worrying about ASW lessons from 20 years ago vs peer threats with A2D2 that pushes carriers outside their strike distance while being able to hit them outside of it. TBH the entire point those stories were making rounds 20 years ago, i.e. around US pivot to Indopac was because PRC had mediocre legacy diesel subs. It was security theatre of the era, i.e. around the time muh carriers are fast filtered down to lay talking points. The strategic landscape against carriers vis-a-vis medium/long range strikes has change - flip side israel surviving 95% iran missiles is can US csg survive 5% PRC missiles. Likely not.
My comment was more directed at if US planners thinks no, would they even be capable of divesting, moving away from carrier model. My guess is no, there's too much sunkcost ineria across domains to pivot. USN is doctrinally, culturally built around carriers, which again numbers are legislated by law, hence extraordinary resource allocation, with layers of industrial and political inertia (no one is going to close/downsize Newport shipyard). The only thing to do is try to patch a potentially obsolete model like distributed survivability to duct tape around the fact that the csg probably doesn't work anymore.