Comment by keiferski
5 hours ago
Call me optimistic or naive, but I don’t worry too much about AI having a major effect on democratic elections, primarily because all of the things it is replacing or augmenting are edge case scenarios where a minute faction of votes ends up winning an election. There is already a massive amount of machinery and money aimed at that sliver, and all AI will probably do is make that operation more efficient and marginally more effective.
For the vast majority of people voting, though, I think a) they already know who they’re voting before because of their identity group membership (“I’m a X person so I only vote for Y party”) or b) their voting is based on fundamental issues like the economy, a particularly weak candidate, etc. and therefore isn’t going to be swayed by these marginal mechanisms.
In fact I think AI might have the opposite effect, in that people will find candidates more appealing if they are on less formal podcasts and in more real contexts - the kind of thing AI will have a harder time doing. The last US election definitely had an element of that.
So I guess the takeaway is: if elections are so close that a tiny amount of voters sway them, the problem of polarization is already pretty extensive enough that AI probably isn’t going to make it much worse than it already is.
> So I guess the takeaway is: if elections are so close that a tiny amount of voters sway them, the problem of polarization is already pretty extensive enough that AI probably isn’t going to make it much worse than it already is.
To rephrase: things are so bad they can't get worse. But the beauty of life is that they always can!
Ok, but If elections are decided by the small swing group, wouldnt that mean a small targeted impact from AI would could *more* effective not less? If all it needs to do it have a 1 percent of impact that makes a huge difference.
Yes, but I guess my point is that this is just another symptom of the polarization problem, and not some unique nightmare scenario where AI has mass influence over what people think and vote on.
So it matters in the same way that the billions of dollars currently put toward this small silver matter, just in a more efficient and effective way. That isn't something to ignore, but it's also not a doomsday scenario IMO.
I think the concern is that it will become a leading contributor to polarization.
Polarization is the symptom. The cause is rampant misinformation and engagement based feeds on social media.
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You are (very) naive and seem to miss how most elections are won or work even. Perhpas you also think you're not getting influenced yourself.
It's the same argument (or puzzle) about how (presumably stupid) ads work in general.
Schneier makes a clear point there,comparing the two, but if you need more examples, you should study the subject. Maybe look at Brexit, or the recent issues in Romanian elections (https://www.bbc.com/articles/cqx41x3gn5zo).
Or, if you need more quantitative information, look at ad spend (and ask yourself why) and look at campaign fundraising and ad spending (or even the messaging around it) and ask yourself why again.