Comment by mtsr
14 hours ago
I know it’s not popular to bring politics into things on HN, but… From the outside at least, White House policy sounds like at least as much of a black swan event as COVID.
14 hours ago
I know it’s not popular to bring politics into things on HN, but… From the outside at least, White House policy sounds like at least as much of a black swan event as COVID.
Not at all, people voted for this and the outcome was expected by people paying attention.
I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election.
> I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election.
I did it a little more than a week following the election, but same. I even sold any ETFs with exposure to the US market I previously owned. People thought I was overreacting selling my VGRO, but the YTD returns for my ex-US portfolio are about 150% of what I could have expected with my old holdings and the peace of mind is priceless.
better pull out of Asian and European markets too! the US isn't going to go down alone.
in fact, you should just put it all in gold and keep it under your pillow
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300k votes in 3 swing states got Trump the electoral college in 2024, separate from him getting the popular vote.
In 2020 Biden won 3 swing states by 200k votes. Trump won in 2016 by 80k swing state votes - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45570973
It's the swing states that matter, not the popular vote.
> I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election.
That sounds pretty black swan to me, I'm guessing you never felt the need sheet any previous election? Being predictable and being unique are different things.
Black swan event: an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier.
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Black swan is not quite right. It's move of an attempted phase change. It was possibly predictable, but definitely disruptive.
Speaking of impending capital controls, which countries aren’t likely to have them once the markets crash and globalism finally dies?
From the inside, this is nothing compared to COVID. 2025 feels a bit weird but to compare it with 2020 is laughable.
That view sounds like it's coming from a position of a white person, not married to a minority, not an immigrant. That describes me too. Software engineer, more secure economically.
Even people with visas or permanent residency, or who even look like they might be Hispanic are justifiably worried about a random car pulling them over and breaking their window. If you aren't aware or concerned, I call that oblivious or a denial of reality. Or privilege (edit: corrected spelling).
It's different in some ways of course than with covid.
> Or privaledge.
Some may even say "privilege".
After all, it sure as a privilege to not be a criminal or human trafficker.
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For (services) software people, 2020 was great: work from home, sky-high jobs demand (perhaps Zero-interest related), surging demand and revenue because by people were bored at home. Brick and mortar retail workers were screwed in 2020.
It is possible that 2025 could be the opposite, the software jobs market os already spooky for juniors, and could get much worse with an AI bust - guess what companies will do to show investors they are making up for written-off AI investments? A recession will lead to a drop in demand for online services like streaming, online shopping as people tighten their belts, upward ratcheting of subscription prices will only make the drop worse.
I think with an AI bust we're more likely to see juniors actually start getting jobs at reasonable rates... but only after short-sighted layoffs of a bunch of more senior positions as opposed to dumping AI products that so many companies have already signed year+ long contracts for in advance.
Depends on your country, 2025 can be either the super easy life or the super hard life compared to 2020.
Black swan event should be unexpected. Trumps victory was within expected possibilities. It was also his second victory.
And his moves after winning were not unexpected either - he is doing what his opponents predicted he will do.
True. It must be added, that theres two wrenches in the machinery that transforms information into action currently.
Firstly - The average market behavior is average.
From experience, most people could not imagine anything of what was predicted, would come true. There is a large … debt of intellectual work that is being underwritten, allowing people to sell narratives which do not correspond to reality.
This is a direct result of a captured, unfair information environment.
As a result, the average behavior of the market is not pricing in these things, even if the plans were made clear.
A coronavirus causing a global pandemic at some point was even more expected though.
And even the erratic government reactions to the pandemic was not entirely unpredictable either to be fair.
Yes, expected at some point. Everyone knows when the election will happen, who is running, etc.
> Trumps victory was within expected possibilities.
While people felt that polls indicated a Harris victory and the margin of Trump's win was a surprise and a failure of forecasters, in reality it was always a toss-up in forecasts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for...