Comment by jimbohn
1 day ago
The AGI argument assumes there is a 0 -> 1 moment where the model suddenly becomes "AGI" and starts performing miraculous tasks, accompanied by recursive self-improvement. So far, our experience shows that we are getting incremental improvements over time from different companies.
These things are being commoditized, and we are still at the start of the curve when it comes to hardware, data centers, etc.
Arguing for an all-in civilization/country bet on AGI given this premise, is either foolish or a sign that you are selling "AGI"
It won't be one miraculous moment, but once a model is capable of performing tasks on its own and verifying its outputs better than a domain-expert using that AI, a human no longer being a bottleneck will allow this model to be deployed on a far larger scale, which would appear much like a 0-1 moment on the outside, even if the improvement over a previous model is minor and only involves a slight tweak of something that increases reliability.