Comment by onlyrealcuzzo
6 hours ago
Tariffs can easily be turned off, and in December the supreme Court could rule that they majority of tariffs in place are illegal AND must be refunded.
According to Polymarket, there's a >50% chance that happens: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-...
Polymarket gives a >50% chance of the tariffs being ruled illegal, not that they would be refunded - the market only gives a ~8% chance of the tariffs being ruled illegal AND and order to refund: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-court-force-trump-to-r...
Don't forget that Howard Lutnick, the Commerce secretary and tariff fanatic, has his sons betting against them at his former firm.
Trump’s Commerce Secretary Loves Tariffs. His Former Investment Bank Is Taking Bets Against Them: https://www.wired.com/story/cantor-fitzgerald-trump-tariff-r...
And the senate probe into said conflict of interest: https://www.finance.senate.gov/ranking-members-news/wyden-wa...
I can push that market to 100% with 10k usd so I wouldn’t weight that too strongly as evidence, although I agree on the tariffs part.
Can you explain how you reached that conclusion? If I'm reading the order book correctly, you'd need much more than 10k to remove all the opposing liquidity. And of course you can't assume that other participants will stand by idly, when you put in enough money to move the market away from what they believe is correct you might discover a lot more contra liquidity appears. So it might not stay where you want it for more than a moment.