Comment by jvanderbot
5 hours ago
Ah, so an asteroid obliterating NYC is not a black swan event because it's statistically likely to happen over long enough time horizons?
If you can forsee the event, but not predict the time, it's just as bad as an even you cannot forsee.
Exactly. The only thing that could be considered a black swan event is something foreshadowed or predicted by no one ever, even in fiction.
If all rivers suddenly turned to wine and killed all the crops? Not a black swan event, water gets turned to wine in the bible.
As you can see this attitude makes the phrase "black swan event" very useful.
That would be a burgundy swan event.
That's a grey swan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_swan