Comment by paulsutter
3 months ago
How much are you ready to bet against Elon's plans to scale up Starlink v3 for GPUs? Starlink v3 already has a 60M length solar array, so they're already solving dissipation for that size. Assume linear scaling to many thousands of modules.
From https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1984249048107508061:
"Simply scaling up Starlink V3 satellites, which have high speed laser links would work. SpaceX will be doing this."
From https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1984868748378157312:
"Starship could deliver 100GW/year to high Earth orbit within 4 to 5 years if we can solve the other parts of the equation. 100TW/year is possible from a lunar base producing solar-powered AI satellites locally and accelerating them to escape velocity with a mass driver."
> How much are you ready to bet against Elon's plans to scale up Starlink v3 for GPUs?
I'm sure they'll be ready right after the androids and the robotaxi and the autonomous LA-NYC summoning.
> Starlink v3 already has a 60M length solar array, so they're already solving dissipation for that size.
Starlink v3 doesn't exist yet. They're renders at this point. Full-sized v2s haven't even flown yet, just mass simulators.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Satellite_revisions
I love your enthusiasm
Please post where you are creating the bet. You should make a lot of money from it
Betting on "Elon misses a timeline" or "Elon waters down previous plans" is tough, because no one wants to take the other side. It's guaranteed.
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