Comment by Dilettante_
2 days ago
But the progress goes both ways: In five years, you would still want to use whatever is running on the cloud supercenters. Just like today you could run gpt-2 locally as a coding agent, but we want the 100x-as-powerful shiny thing.
That would be great if that was the case but my understanding is that the progress is plateauing. I don't know how much of this is anthorpic / Google / openAI holding itself back to save money and how much is the state of the art improvement slowing down though. I can imagine there could be a 64 GB GPU in five years as absurd as it feels to type that today.
What gives you the impression the progress is plateauing?
I'm finding the difference just between Sonnet 4 and Sonnet 4.5 to be meaningful in terms of the complexity of tasks I'm willing to use them for.
> I'm finding the difference just between Sonnet 4 and Sonnet 4.5 to be meaningful in terms of the complexity of tasks I'm willing to use them for.
That doesn't mean "not plateauing".
It's better, certainly, but the difference between SOTA now and SOTA 6 months ago is a fraction of the difference between SOTA 6 months ago and the difference 18 months ago.
It doesn't mean that the models aren't getting better, it means that the improvement in each generation is smaller than the the improvement in the previous generation.
2 replies →
> a 64 GB GPU in five years
Is there a digit missing? I don't understand why this existing in 5 years is absurd
I meant for me it feels absurd today but it will likely happen in five years.
Not really, for many cases I'm happy using Qwen3-8B in my computer and would be very happy if I could run Qwen3-Coder-30B-A3B.