Comment by hedgehog
5 hours ago
I don't know if the bet was even particularly wrong. If they had done a little better job on performance, capitalized on the pains of Netburst + AMD64 transition, and survived long enough to do integrated 3D graphics and native libraries for Javascript + media decoding it might have worked out fine. That alternate universe might have involved a merger with Imagination when the Kyro was doing poorly and the company had financial pain. We'll never know.
I don't either. Even with their problems, they didn't miss by much.
One key factor against them, though, is that they were facing a company whose long-term CEO had written Only The Paranoid Survive. At that point he had moved from being the CEO to the chairman of the board. But Intel had paranoia about possible existential threats baked into its DNA.
There is no question that Intel recognized Transmeta as a potential existential threat, and aggressively went after the very low-power market that Transmeta was targeting. Intel quickly created SpeedStep, allowing power consumption to dynamically scale when not under peak demand. This improved battery life on laptops using the Pentium III, without sacrificing peak performance. They went on to produce low power chips like the Pentium M that did even better on power.
Granted, Intel never managed to match the low power that Transmeta had. But they managed to limit Transmeta enough to cut off their air supply - they couldn't generate the revenue needed to invest enough to iterate as quickly as they needed to. This isn't just a story of Transmeta stumbling. This is also a story of Intel recognizing and heading off a potential threat.