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Comment by amelius

21 hours ago

It would make sense if he used to money to buy TSMC or ASML instead.

MSFT and AAPL seem like better ways to diversify your money away from chips, while keeping it in technology.

  • APPL is the best bet as it doesnt have any exposure to AI. MSFT has spent a truckload of money on datacentres, if AI doesnt deliver they're going to face a huge drag on earnings because of the overinvestment.

    • Microsoft has the same struggle as Facebook and Google.

      If AI matures into the next big thing, it risks wiping them out of their dominant positions if they don't spend to keep pace.

      If it doesn't, then they just blew a bunch of money but are still dominant players, with an existential threat in the rearview.

      Given the relative risks, they'd be foolish not to pump some of their cash flow into AI for a few years until the pace settles.

Assuming he is correct (I think he is) and Nvidia goes down sharply, it will take AMD, Intel etc. with it. Usually the equipment makers and fabs go down with them, many times even at a higher percentage.